Finance and Growth : Efficient Causality Tests in Error-Correction Systems for the U.S.A., the U.K., and Japan(Collected Papers on the Occasion of the Retirement of Professor Eiichi AKIMOTO)

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I examine the causal directions between financial development and economic growth for prewar and postwar U.S.A., U.K., and Japan. The method used is the one developed by Hall, Toda, and Phillips et al. and is what can be called a generalized Granger causality test. It estimates the coefficients of long-run cointegrated relations and shorter-run adjustment processes simultaneously and eficiently. I show that causal patterns are country and period-specific. I also examine if the 'Patrick hypothesis' is relevant, which implies that in the early development stage, finance causes economic growth, while in the later stage, the opposite causality becomes typical.
千葉大学の論文