Banking and Economic Growth : Causality in Cointegrated Systems for 15 Countries
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概要
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This paper sets up VAR systems with cointegration relations and error-correction mechanisms for 15 developing countries. Regression results are then used to infer the direction of causality between financial development and real-side development. Our VAR systems show that in six countries, real-side development preceded and caused financial development; in four countries, the causality ran in the opposite direction; two countries exhibited bi-directional causality; and in the remaining three countries, the causal direction was not decided. Hence our analysis shows that the causal relationship exhibits no regular pattern, in contrast to the results from cross-country regression analyses so far presented. The paper also casts some doubt on the Patrick hypothesis, according to which 'finance→output' causality is followed by 'output→finance' causality in a typical development process.
- 千葉大学の論文
- 2005-06-29
著者
関連論文
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