得点先取方式の球技の試合における確率計算の方法ー定式化とバレーボールの試合への応用ー

概要

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In this paper, we propose a method for calculating the probability of ballgames reaching scores of i-jand the probability of winning from scores of i-j under n-point-up scoring system. We show a mathematicalformulation which shows the progress of the score in terms of tennis, table tennis, badminton andvolleyball. We also demonstrate how to calculate these probabilities using a spreadsheet, which makes itpossible to obtain these probabilities without any special knowledge of computer programming. As an applicationof this method, we calculate the winning probability and the number of plays in a volleyballgame, not only under the rally-point system, but also under the side-out system, and compare these systemsnumerically.
2009-03-31