Analysis of CO_2 Emissions Trading Considering the Kyoto Protocol Using a Multi-Agent Model

概要

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In this study, a multi-agent simulation model is constructed and international emissions trading (IET) of CO_2 considering the Kyoto Protocol is analyzed using it. Then, the results are compared with the "no IET" and the "theoretical IET". Unlike traditional economic methods, multi-agent models make analysis of complex social systems like emissions trading possible without strong assumptions. In the model, each country (region) behaves as an independent agent in the interactions and tries to abate CO_2 emissions with minimum cost through decision making between self-abatement and IET depending on its local information. In the trade, offer prices are determined based on marginal abatement cost functions and strategies, and offer amounts are determined based on CO_2 emissions and emissions rights. As a result, although the results of each simulation are similar, the states of trade are continuously fluctuating. From the comparisons with the no IET and the theoretical IET, it is revealed that the costs and the self-abatement amounts of the developed countries become smaller, the profit of economies in transition become larger, and the total cost becomes smaller by introducing IET assuming bounded rationality. However, these effects are far below those of the theoretical IET.
関西学院大学の論文