関東大震災における東京市住民避難性状の推定に関する研究 : ポテンシャル法に基づく地震火災時の避難シミュレーションモデルの開発

概要

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Large number of residents is expected to be evacuees in case of an urban fire following large earthquake. It is essential to implement an effective evacuation plan for maintaining residents' safety. In this study, a model for the evacuation behaviors of city residents based on the potential theory was developed. The model consists of following sub-models: (1) fire hazard model; (2) psychological space model of safety recognized by residents; and (3) traveling model of residents under the influence of the former sub-models. In the fire hazard model, temperature rise by fire plumes and thermal radiation from burning area are considered in evaluating the hazard potential. Whereas, in the psychological space model, the safety potential of the egress route is evaluated by considering the overlapping effect of neighboring refuges. The effects of the hazard potential and the safety potential are integrated into another potential which governs the overall egress behaviors of residents. In this paper, the evacuation behaviors of residents in the Kanto Earthquake Fire in 1923 were simulated. The results were compared in terms of the number and location of fatalities, and the number of person evacuated into major refuges. The model simulated the evacuation behaviors with reasonable accuracy, and the potential theory was expected to be effective for simulation of the evacuation behaviors of residents in post-earthquake fire.
2009-02-28