グローバリゼーションと途上国の経済発展 : アジア金融危機とその教訓(大会報告・共通論題:グローバル化の世界と市民の連帯)
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This paper focuses on a developing country's policy strategy for balanced economic growth under financial globalization. Sudden outflows of foreign capital in the middle of 1997 occurred as foreign investors responded to macro-economic unbalance in Asian economies in the mid-1990s. Many Asian economies heated up beyond their potential growth rates during the boom of the mid-'90s, through over-investment, over-consumption or a financial bubble. Why did the financial authorities dismiss these signs of macro-unbalance? One of the causes may have been a failure to estimate potential growth ratios based on the NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) or Phillips curve. In the early 1990s NAIRU or Phillips curve appeared to be shifting leftward in many Asian economies: unemployment across the East and Southeast Asian region decreased from over 4.5 % to around 2%, although price levels remained stable. Lower unemployment, however, does not necessarily imply a leftward shift of the NAIRU. We need to analyze movements in productivity of both labor and capital. The estimation of NAIRU using modern smoothing filters tends to fail in a developing economy, due to lack of data and rapid changes in unemployment rates. The lesson from the Asian financial crisis is that a developing country should keep its economic growth rate on a balanced, moderate uptrend. Maintaining balance in economic growth could protect a small national economy from the trauma caused by volatile foreign capital movements. The government may have to adopt various means for capital control in order to reap the benefits of increased inward investment while avoiding the risks. In order to avoid frequently recurring financial crises, a developing economy should make a development plan based on the idea of balanced economic growth. A key tool to achieving that it is through improving the estimation of NAIRU.
- 2003-04-30
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