Climatological Reproducibility Evaluation and Future Climate Projection of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Baiu Season Using a High-Resolution Non-Hydrostatic RCM in Comparison with an AGCM

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概要

• 論文の詳細を見る

• This paper studies an evaluation of climatological reproducibility and one of future climate projections of extreme precipitation in the Baiu season (from mid-May to July) around Japan using data of numerical experiments. The models are a non-hydrostatic cloud-system-resolving atmospheric model with a horizontal grid size of 5km (5km-NHM) utilized as a regional climate model (RCM), and an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a horizontal resolution of about 20km (20km AGCM) which provided the boundary condition of 5km-NHM. Ten-year runs were performed by the time-slice method. The mean precipitation amount of the three heaviest precipitation events that ranked in order of precipitation amount in every year (P_<Top3>) at each grid point was used as an index to examine quantitatively extreme precipitation within a specific term with various precipitation accumulation periods (APs). The 5km-NHM experiment reproduced P_<Top3> much better than that of 20km-AGCM, especially for shorter APs. In the projection of P_<Top3> in the future climate with 5km-NHM, ratio in two climate states of P_<Top3> for longer APs and that of precipitation amount show the roughly same pattern. The increase areas of those were localized around Kyushu, Japan. In particular, the P_<Top3> for longer APs was projected to increase 30-70% in the mountainous areas along the Pacific coast of western Japan. This increase was due to a cyclonic circulation of an incremental low-pressure generated on the western side of Kyushu. On the other hand, large increases of P_<Top3> for shorter APs spread widely with a scattered pattern to the area where precipitation decreases. This characteristic was associated with the intensification of precipitation due to global warming.

• 社団法人日本気象学会の論文
• 2008-12-25

著者

• Kanada Sachie

  Advanced Earth Science and Technology Organization, Meteorological Research Institute

• Kanada Sachie

  Advanced Earth Science And Technology Organization Mri

• WAKAZUKI Yasutaka

  Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

• NAKAMURA Masaomi

  Meteorological Research Institute (MRI)

• MUROI Chiashi

  Japan Meteorological Agency

• Wakazuki Yasutaka

  Japan Agency For Marine-earth Sci. And Technol.

関連論文

• Representation of Extreme Weather during a Typhoon Landfall in Regional Meteorological Simulations: A Model Intercomparison Study for Typhoon Songda (2004)
• Changes in the Baiu Frontal Activity in the Future Climate Simulated by Super-High-Resolution Global and Cloud-Resolving Regional Climate Models
• Climatological Reproducibility Evaluation and Future Climate Projection of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Baiu Season Using a High-Resolution Non-Hydrostatic RCM in Comparison with an AGCM
• Projections of Future Changes in Precipitation and the Vertical Structure of the Frontal Zone during the Baiu Season in the Vicinity of Japan Using a 5-km-mesh Regional Climate Model (Special Issue on Recent Development on Climate Models and Future Climat

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