1990年代アメリカ経済と対米証券投資(大会報告・共通論題 : 1990年代不況の世界史的意味)
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概要
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The U.S. economy has continued to perform in an outstanding way since 1992. Economic growth still remained solid through 1999, and financial markets, after freezing up temporarily following the Russian default, were revitalized again. Labor markets have remained quite tight, but to date, this has failed to ignite the inflationary pressure that many feared. Some economists call this longest continued economic growth "New Economy". The theory of "New Economy" is not so detailed, but they adroitly point out some important changes of the U.S. economy in the 1990s. As a result, this theory consider the U.S. economy in the 1990s as fundamentally different from that in the 1980s. According to them, the most important structural change is technological, that is the rapid diffusion of information technology. The first section of this paper examines some structural changes, which they think essential to understand the U.S. recent economic growth. In the theory of "New Economy", from my viewpoint, a high performance of the U.S. stock market is considered as a symbol of good real economy. However, we think that there are more positive factors resulting in continued rise of stock prices. Therefore, the second section of this paper focuses on the domestic and international factors behind a high performance of the U.S. stock market in the 1990s. Based on our analysis, household's stock investment through pension fund, life insurance and trust investment is the most important fund flow into the stock market. An another source of fund into the U.S. stock market is foreign capital. But this doesn't necessarily mean that foreign investors buy a large amount of the U.S. stocks on the net base. In reality they prefer treasury securities and corporate bonds to corporate stocks. This results in lower interest of the long-term liabilities and in turn shifting the household investment into the stock markets from bank deposit and treasury securities. Thus foreign capital flow into the U.S. treasury securities and bonds stimulates indirectly the U.S. stock markets.
- 政治経済学・経済史学会の論文
- 2000-04-20
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