中国の貿易不均衡をもたらす長期的要因に関する考察

概要

論文の詳細を見る
Large trade surplus of China has become an important problem in recent years, for trade frictions between China and its trade partners have been caused frequently, and expensive foreign reserves have brought about excessive money supply. In this situation Chinese Yuan has faced strong pressure of revaluation and began to take more flexible exchange system from July 21, 2005. But the increasing trend of trade surplus in China has had no noticeable changes, though the Yuan to US dollar rate has evaluated about 20% until now. In this paper it is indicated that the main power leading to the trade surplus of China comes from the foreign-funded enterprises. They are not sensitive to Yuan rate for many of which are engaged in the processing trade. In this fact we suppose that the trade balance of China can be factored into (1) world export, (2) GDP of China, (3) real effective exchange rate of Yuan and (4) foreign direct investment. By the cointegration test and least-square method, we can find that, in the long-term, the real effective exchange rate is not a factor of affecting the trade balance of China in statistical confidence. Therefore we must focus our consideration on some policies and measures of expanding the domestic demand and controlling foreign direct investment more than the revaluation of Yuan only.