溶解する日本政治の権力核心
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概要
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On January 12, the divided Japanese Diet finally enacted a legislative measure that authorised the Fukuda administration to restart replenishment support for the US-led maritime interdiction operation in the Indian Ocean. Earlier, in the Upper House, the leading opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and other mini-parties together voted down the already passed House bill with a simple majority. Subsequently, in the Lower House, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komei Party resorted to their two-third majority to override the Upper House decision.During the impasse of five and a half months since then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's crushing defeat in the July 2007 Upper House election, the issue of replenishment support continued to represent the major focal point of the political power struggle in Tokyo. This prolonged impasse revealed that the battle between both the LDP and the DPJ was devoid of any ideological divide, a state of affairs that did not sharpen the national debate at all. Worse, it also suggested that neither party had more than a handful of competent next-generation leaders to constitute an effective power nucleus in decade to come.Accustomed to a one-party-dominated system over several decades, both LDP and DPJ leaders are afraid of legislative stalemates and popular distrust of their respective parties. As the result, the confrontation between both parties has continued. LDP leaders are reluctant to accelerate and intensify the current partisan strife, even though doing so would vindicate their policy positions and thereby benefit them in the coming national election. Further, the LDP leadership is not ready to take a full advantage of the Constitutional rules for steering the Diet, while the DPJ counterparts remain opportunistic.Although the Japanese public remains highly skeptical of the inexperienced DPJ that has been incapable to present effective policy alternatives, the LDP under Fukuda is drifting because the Prime Minister is only an excellent manager, but neither an innovator nor a risk-taker who is able to carry out a systemic overhaul, ranging from a resolution to the hung Diet, to the attainment of political leadership over bureaucrats, and to policy innovations on issues that various policy strategists have already proposed.The current Japan's current political stasis awaits a big bang that will bring competent nextgeneration leaders into the power nucleus. This is unlikely to be expected from the existing parties, but possibly feasible either through a reformed LDP or an evolved DPJ, or even a new party to be born out of a reorganization of the two parties along ideological lines. The good news is that we already know the prescription for a more proactive and prosperous Japan. The bad news is that time is running out when rapidly changing international security and economic conditions require Japan to respond promptly and offer visionary leadership.
- 2008-06-20
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