Predictability of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings as Inferred from Ensemble Forecast Data : Intercomparison of 2001/02 and 2003/04 Winters

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概要

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• The predictability of a minor warming and the subsequent major warming in the winter of 2003/04 is examined in comparison with that of the major warming without preceding minor warmings in December 2001 by the use of operational ensemble 1-month forecast data produced by the Japan Meteorological Agency. In the case of the major warming in December 2001 caused by amplified zonal wavenumber 1 planetary waves, the predictable period based on zonal mean temperatures in the polar stratosphere is estimated to be at least 16 days, while the warmings in the winter of 2003/04 are predictable at most 9 days in advance. Such relatively reduced predictability for the latter warmings is considered due to the rather complicated time evolution of the warming episodes with a significant contribution of smaller-scale planetary waves during the period prior to the warmings.

• 社団法人日本気象学会の論文
• 2007-12-25

著者

• Mukougawa Hitoshi

  Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University

• Hirooka Toshihiko

  Department Of Earth And Planetary Sciences Kyushu University

• ICHIMARU Tomoko

  Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Kyushu University

• Ichimaru Tomoko

  Department Of Earth And Planetary Sciences Kyushu University

関連論文

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• Interannual Variations of the General Circulation and Polar Stratospheric Ozone Losses in a General Circulation Model
• INFLUENCES OF ARCTIC OZONE HOLE ON THE STRATOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION
• Dynamical contribution to formation of an ozone mini hole in the Northern Hemisphere in mid-winter
• Predictability of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings as Inferred from Ensemble Forecast Data : Intercomparison of 2001/02 and 2003/04 Winters

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