Predictability of the Downward Migration of the Northern Annular Mode : A Case Study for January 2003

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概要

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• The dynamics and predictability of a downward migration event of the negative Northern Annular Mode (NAM) anomaly following a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) occurring in January 2003 are examined using the operational 1-month ensemble forecast data set provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency. It is found that the predictable period of the tropospheric negative NAM anomaly is at most 6 days, which is much shorter than that of the precedent SSW event. The tropospheric NAM anomaly is caused by the E-P flux convergence associated with zonal wavenumber 2 planetary waves at the tropopause level, of which propagating property is affected by the zonal-mean zonal wind there. Our results suggest that even large stratospheric circulation changes associated with the SSW event have only limited influence on the predictability of the tropospheric circulation.

• 2007-12-25

著者

• Mukougawa Hitoshi

  Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University

• Hirooka Toshihiko

  Department Of Earth And Planetary Sciences Kyushu University

関連論文

• Predictability of the Downward Migration of the Northern Annular Mode : A Case Study for January 2003
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• Dynamical contribution to formation of an ozone mini hole in the Northern Hemisphere in mid-winter
• Predictability of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings as Inferred from Ensemble Forecast Data : Intercomparison of 2001/02 and 2003/04 Winters

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