わが国の設備投資の推移とジュグラーサイクル : 設備投資比率の推移と資本係数の変動

概要

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In the post-war period in Japan, the existence of Juglar cycle has been shown in terms of the investment-GNP ratio. However, it was not clarified what is the relation among the investment-GNP ratio, capital stock and the Juglar cycle. In this paper, we will establish the existence of the Juglar cycle by the use of moving average on GDP growth rate, first of all. Then, we will investigate the relation between the investment-GNP ratio and the capital coefficient, and show that investments in the post-war period were carried out according to the capital stock adjustment principle. Moreover, we will verify the cyclical relation between GDP growth rate and capital stock grow rate in Japan, and clarify the mechanism of the Juglar cycle.