確率特性を考慮した系統独立型太陽光発電システムの性能評価法(機械力学,計測,自動制御)

概要

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A probabilistic approach to evaluating the performance of a stand-alone photovoltaic system with a storage battery is proposed. In consideration of probabilistic characteristics of insolation and electricity demand, the loss-of-load probability as well as the expected values of electric power generated by an auxiliary diesel generator and electric power disposed of are evaluated in relation to the surface area of the photovoltaic array, the capacity of the storage battery, and the capacity of the diesel generator. The probability density function of insolation for each hour is expressed using beta distributions. Instead of considering the hourly change in insolation as a stochastic process, we adopted two simplified models: in one the hourly insolation changes randomly, and in the other it changes deterministically. These models give extreme cases for the hourly change in insulation, from which the system performance for an actual change in insolation can be estimated by interpolation. A case study is carried out using measured data on insolation. The results obtained using this probabilistic approach are compared with those obtained using a deterministic approach, and the usefulness of the proposed approach is ascertained.
一般社団法人日本機械学会の論文
1997-04-25