確率特性を考慮した系統連系型太陽光発電システムの多目的最適設備容量計画

概要

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A probabilistic approach to the optimal unit sizing of a grid-connected photovoltaic system without storage battery is presented. The surface area of the photovoltaic array, the capacity of the receiving device, and the electric contract demand are determined so as to minimize the expected values of the annual total cost and annual energy consumption subject to the loss of power supply probability, in consideration of probabilistic characteristics of solar insolation and electricity demand. This optimization problem is considered as a multiobjective one, and a discrete set of Pareto optimal solutions is derived numerically by using the weighting method. A case study on a system with the option of reverse power flow into the grid is carried out using measured data on solar insolation. The trade-off relationship between the two objectives is clarified and optimal values of the above design items are determined in relation to the loss of power supply probability. The results obtained by this probabilistic approach are compared with those for the deterministic approach.
一般社団法人日本機械学会の論文
1995-01-25