広域分布型物理水文モデルを用いた実時間流出予測システムの開発と淀川流域への適用

概要

論文の詳細を見る
A real-time distributed runoff forecasting system is developed for the Yodo River basin (7, 281km^2). The system provides 6 hrs-ahead river discharge predictions every hour. The predictions include river discharges at 1, 707 points located about 3km intervals along the channel networks shown on 1 : 25000 topographic maps ; dam reservoir inflows, outflows, and reservoir stages at the 8 dams in the basin. The distributed hydrologic model routes slope flows one-dimensionally along the steepest flow directions derived from 250m grid-based DEMs using the kinematic wave equations. The channel routing model with dam reservoir operation simulates river flow taking account of flow regulations. Real-time 6 hrs-ahead forecasting rainfall information with 2.5km spatial resolution drives the prediction system, which is provided through the Japan Weather Association. The real-time forecasting results are demonstrated through a web site http : //yodogawa.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/, which presents spatially distributed 6 hrs-ahead discharge predictions and comparisons of provisional observed river discharges.
日本自然災害学会の論文
2007-08-31