九州中東部でのIDFカーブの作成と2005年台風14号による豪雨の統計的評価

概要

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As mentioned in several hydrological textbooks, derivation of IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves of rainfall for a region or observation point is one of the first steps in many hydrologic design projects, such as in design of facilities for flood prevention. We used AMeDAS data observed by the Japan Meteorological Agency and tried to improve a method how to construct the IDF curves. We adopted L-moment method for estimating the parameters of statistical distributions. For the evaluation of goodness-of-fit, we used MC (mean of confidence level) as well as SLSC (standard least-squares criterion). We conclude that the MC could be a potential valuable criterion. Moreover, we evaluated the frequency of rainfall depth due to Typhoon 0514. As a result, that is evaluated to be a heavy rainfall whose return period is longer than 120 years.
日本自然災害学会の論文
2007-02-28