原油価格変動の経済要因分析 : 戦間期におけるソ連と国際石油カルテルを中心に

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The general understanding of international oil market in the period between 1920's and 1960's has been as follows. International Petroleum Cartel, which was formed in 1928 by three major oil companies in U. S. A. and England, worked so well that the whole world oil market was under this system until the first oil shock in 1973 when OPEC got the right to decide the oil price for the first time in history. But this study shows a new understanding. We cannot say that the International Petroleum Cartel dominated the international oil market especially between the wars because the cartel could neither control the Soviet oil, which accounted for 12.1% in the world oil market, nor put them under the influence of the system. A close look at the history of the negotiation between the three major oil companies and the Soviet government tells us that the former tried to make a cooperative relation with the latter and control the Soviet oil export many times, but it failed in vain, and finally gave it up. Consequently, the Soviet oil export increased so much in quantity that it had the downward pressure on crude oil price at that time when the supply of oil increased sharply with the newly discovered oil fields while the demand did not increased so much because of the Great Depression. Lesson from this history would be as follows. The control of outsider (in this case it was USSR, and now it is non-OPEC countries) has been so difficult that the international oil market experienced hard times in the past, so now international oil market participants should not make any fruitless competition but consider the cooperation for the stability of the oil price and the conservation of oil resources for the future.
1999-03-10

著者

則長満
神戸大学経済学部

原油価格変動の経済要因分析 : 戦間期におけるソ連と国際石油カルテルを中心に

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