原油価格下落の経済要因分析 : 1985年導入のネットバック方式を中心に
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The two oil crises in the 1970s severely damaged the world economy. Faced with declining world oil demand and increasing non-OPEC production, OPEC cut output significantly in the first half of the 1980s to defend its official price. Saudi Arabia, which had played the role of swing-producer in the cartel, bore most of the production cuts. In late 1985, Saudi Arabia abandoned its swing-producer role, increased production, and aggressively moved to increase market share. Saudi Arabia tried a netback pricing concept, which tied crude oil prices to the value of refined petroleum products. In response, other OPEC members also increased production and offered netback pricing arrangements to maintain market share and to offset declining revenues. These actions resulted in a glut of crude oil in world markets, and crude oil prices fell sharply to 10 dollars a barrel in early 1986. Consequently, this price fluctuation increased the exposure of buyers of crude oil to significant risks. Then buyers began to participate in petroleum futures markets, which had already started in 1983, in order to avoid these risks. In particular, after the oil collapse in 1986, the volume of transactions on commodity markets increased. Consequently, petroleum commodity markets have become the mechanism through which the price of crude oil is determined. OPEC's posted price system was replaced by a formula that tied the buyer's payment to the publicly quoted price of crude oil in spot markets. In conclusion, the introduction of netback pricing by Saudi Arabia led not only to the origin of the present pricing system but also to the loss of the chance of price setting by OPEC. Indeed, the influence of OPEC upon price setting decreased, but that of Saudi Arabia, which has great reserves and production flexibility, upon world oil markets remains strong even now. The oil policy of Saudi Arabia should be monitored from now on.
- 1998-03-10
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