変動相場制30年の歴史に学ぶ円高ドル安習性と今後の展開

概要

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It is more than 30 years since the floating exchange regime of major currencies started in 1973. The yen appreciated from the pre-float fixed exchange rate of 360 yen per US dollar to a historical high of 80 yen, which was recorded in 1995. From the second half of 2003 to the first quarter of 2004, we witnessed another upsurge of the yen against the dollar. The reason behind the long term upward trend of the yen is a familiar set of circumstances characterized by bloated US deficits on its current account balance of payments and related protectionist pressure on the yen. Meanwhile, the Japanese government tried to contain adverse effects of yen's acute appreciation by so-called unsterilized foreign exchange intervention. In the short run, a widening real interest rate differential between the US and Japan will be necessary for the dollar to stop depreciating, which will accompany tightening of the FED monetary policy. In the long run, however, emergence of both the euro as a single European currency and China as a new engine of the world economy will make the exchange rate determination more complex than heretofore.
法政大学の論文
2004-08-10