中国人口モデルの作成と人口の長期推計 : 中国のエネルギー・経済・環境モデル(CHINA1)に関する研究第1報

概要

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In this paper, a model of Chinese population was developed. With this model, the population of China is predicted according to the total fertility rate. The main results from this study are as follows: (1) the average total fertility rate over the period of 1990-1995 is 1.87; (2) when the TFR is equal to 1.87, the population of China will grow to 1.27 billion, 1.49 billion and 1.46 billion in the years of 2000, 2035 and 2050 respectively; (3) the ratio of dependent population will grow to more than 80% in the year of 2050 if the TFR is equal to 1.0; (4) the TFR should be between 1.5 to 2.0 in China to sustain the society economically and environmentally; (5) equations were developed as the functions of time and TFR, with which the Chinese population can be forecasted easily.
社団法人日本建築学会の論文
1998-08-30