213 エネルギー需要量予測に基づくエネルギー供給システムの最適運用計画(OS-5 環境負荷ミニマイズのための熱流体・環境工学の展開(1))

概要

論文の詳細を見る
It is necessary to predict energy demands appropriately for rational operation of energy supply systems. The conventional method of identifying parameters of a prediction model minimizes only the errors between measured and predicted energy demands. As a result, the optimal operation of energy supply systems based on predicted energy demands may repeat equipment startup and shutdown. In this paper, a method of identifying parameters of a multiplicative ARJMA prediction model is proposed, which minimizes the errors between measured and predicted energy demands as well as the variations in predicted ones. Through a case study on an existing district heating and cooling system, it turns out that the proposed method can reduce the variations in predicted energy demands and determine rational operational strategies with small numbers of equipment startup and shutdown.
一般社団法人日本機械学会の論文
2004-03-17