パワー・シフトと武力紛争 : スプラトリー(南沙)諸島紛争の事例から

概要

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The aim of this article is to test a hypothesis of power shift theory using the case of the Spratly Islands conflict in the South China Sea. This theory assumes that a rising revisionist power is likely to launch a military conflict. Especially, under the condition of an offensive advantage, the probability of an armed clash rises because a relatively powerful state can achieve its political purpose (security) without paying much in military or political costs. A careful investigation of the 1988 Spratly conflict and its aftermath suggests that the power shift theory provides a better explanation of the Chinese offensive against Vietnam than alternative theories. The Soviet withdrawal from Indochina in the late 1980s changed the distribution of power in the region in favor of China. Then, China took advantage of this chance to expand its influence in the Southeast Asia region. Therefore, the power shift theory is verified through the case study of the Spratly Islands dispute.
東海大学の論文
2004-03-30