北極海航路運航シミュレーション

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The Northern Sea Route (NSR) shall keep its advantages in costs against other alternative transportation means including railways or routes through the Suez Canal. INSROP Phase II are assigned tasks to perform a ship transit simulation in order to answer concerns about, the cost benefit and associated risks in case of utilizing the NSR commercially. In order to conduct the simulation; keeping with some confidences, multi disciplinary knowledge is necessary. Thus, Simulation of Ship Navigation project is divided into nine work packages (WPs) and our WP8 takes the responsibility of integrating other project results. Chapter 1 describes introduction and background. Chapter 2 summarizes the conditions utilized in this simulation. Chapter 3 and 4 describe the computer code developed for this simulation. In this simulation, an effort is made to connect the ship velocity simulation code by WP6 and the ice conditions presented by WP2. The concept for the Ice Index originally introduced by the Arctic Ship Pollution Prevention Regulations (ASPPR) as ice numerals is modified to express the ice conditions quantitatively as a solution, then the probabilistic relations between the ice condition and ship velocity are developed. This method considerably enables shortening of the simulation time with keeping rational relation between the ice condition and transit time. Chapter 5 summarizes the results. The simulation was performed in twofold. One is the simulation named Monthly Voyage Simulation (MVS) representing the required cost on each month. MVS is the most preferable method to look at the general trends for the variations for transit times by season and sea area, and icebreaker escort times etc. The other is the simulation named Annual Serial Voyage Simulation (ASVS). ASVS aims to estimate a number of voyages per year and evaluated freight cost per voyage as $/ton. ASVS is widely. used by the shipping industries to judge feasibility in terms of cost and profit. Final chapter describes conclusion and recommendation from the study. The capital cost and icebreaker tariff have significant effects among the cost parameters. The tariff rate of 4.0$/GT seems to make the NSR economically feasible under the condition that the performance in open water of ice-breaking bulk cargo is improved. The Ice Index will be a good index to quantitatively express the difficulty of the navigation in the NSR .
社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会の論文

北極海航路運航シミュレーション

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