技術予測の考え方と活用法 : デルファイ技術予測を中心にして(<特集>技術予測)

概要

論文の詳細を見る
The Science and Technology Agency (STA) has done technological forecasting every 5 years since 1971. This has been done using he Delphi method covering almost every field of science and technology. When the government or private company plans and promotes R&D it is necessary to forecast technological trends, therefore, the STA's technological forecast gives important information for the planning and promotion of R&D. This paper outlines the Delphi technological forecasting method using the STA'S technological forecast as an example. This paper also reveals the characteristics and significance of the STA's technological forecasting along with the technique with which the Delphi method is applied to the forecast. The STA's technological forecasting method, in general, is evaluated as well as the limits and capabilities of the Delphi method under these circumstances. How to understand and apply technological forecasting is discussed using the case of a private firm as an example. Finally, the issue of technological forecasting itself is examined.
研究・技術計画学会の論文
1992-10-22