多局化とテレビ放送収入
スポンサーリンク
概要
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This study, based on the experience in Japan with the development of television broadcasting, aims to analyze the impact of the increase in the number of the television stations in the local area on the television sales revenue structure. Several regression models are created and checked for validity in order to explain appropriately the television sales revenue structure in each local area. A prefecture is in principle adopted as a unit for representing each local area, because a private television station is basically allowed to broadcast its programmes in the respective prefecture. However, both Okayama-Kagawa and Tottori-Shimane areas are exceptional, because each forms one local area, having television stations which broadcast programmes concurrently for two prefectures. Television sales revenues per fiscal year local area from 1975 to 1990 are measured for the criterion variable. In this period, the increase in the number of stations is classified into three patterns; namely from two stations to three, from two to four and from four to five. It becomes clear that the television sales revenue at a local area is best predicted mostly by adopting the sales revenue in the previous year as well as the local macro economic index as the predictor variables, where there is no increase in the number of stations. Moreover, it turns out that the influence of the sales revenue in the previous year is very strong, namely its coefficient is about 0.9 for some areas. As for the local areas where the number of stations have increased, the dummy variables representing the increase in the number of stations should be adopted for explaining the television sales revenue, adding to the sales revenue in the previous year and the local macro economic index. The following results are obtained by applying these regression models on the areas where the number of stations have increased in the given period; (a)The increase in the number of the television stations brings about the magnification of the revenue structure equal to about 2 billion yen (real) for the year when the increase in the number of stations has occurred. (b)The effect of the increase in the number of stations from two to three on the revenue structure is statistically similar to that from three to four. (c)The dummy variable on the increase in the number of stations at the Okayama-Kagawa area does not show any statistical significance. The change in the revenue structure in this area had possibly taken place even before 1985 when the new station was established. Television stations in each prefecture had just entered into the other prefecture, because PTT declared previously in 1981 that two prefectures should form one area for the private television broadcasting.
- 日本マス・コミュニケーション学会の論文
- 1995-01-31