降雨モデルを用いた土砂災害予測の試み

概要

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A forecast experiment of landslide is conducted with the use of a mesoscale rainfall model. The rainfall model is physically based, which predicts rainfall at 2 km grid intervals. The predicted rainfall is inputted into an empirical formula and the occurrence of landslide is evaluated. We applied the model to the landslide disaster caused by Typhoon 9307. The model predicted 48% and 82% of the study area as the occurrence regions of severe and non-severe landslides, respectively. Actually two severe and nine non-severe landslides occurred in these regions. The results suggest the possibility of landslide forecasting with the use of a rainfall model. However, some problems were pointed out through the experiments; for example, the predicted landslide regions were too wide compared with the actual ones. We discuss how the problems will be improved.
日本自然災害学会の論文
1998-08-31