犯罪指標による都道府県の類型化 : ログ・リニアモデルを使用して
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概要
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Recently the crime phenomenon was analyzed quantitatively by some co-operative researches between statisticians and criminological researchers, particularly in U.S.A. This movement might be natural from the recent view of the notable development of new statist/ical procedures. Although there are many approaches to criminal research, the method employed in this paper was statistical and should be compatible with traditional forms of research. First, we analyzed the change of main crimes in Japan after World War II using a Log-linear model which is a fairly new statistical procedure. Secondly, we made the time pattern of the change of each prefecture and classified the 47 prefectures into groups in terms of the similarity of the pattern. As a result of the analysis, we found the phenomenon of the change as follows : Felonious and violent crimes tended to decrease, but larceny and intellectual crimes showed a tendency to increase. That is, the weight of the main crime has changed from felonious and violent crimes to theft and intellectual crimes. Finally, we classified each brefecture into 5 groups by the time pattern of the change as follows : [Year] (1954)→(1966)→(1974)→(1984) Class 1 (Complex pattern)→(Rape, Assault, Injury)→(Theft)→(Theft) Class 2 (Complex pattern)→(Rape, Assault, Injury) or (Rape, Assault)→(Theft) or (no feature)→(Fraud) Class 3 (Complex pattern)→(Rape, Assault, Injury)→(Theft)→(Theft, Fraud) Class 4 (Complex pattern)→(Assault, Injury) or (Injury, Theft) or (Rape, Assault, Injurj)→(Assault) or (Theft) or (Assault, Theft)→(Theft) or (Embezzlement) or (Theft, Embezlement) Class 5 (Theft, Embezzlement)→(Robbery, Arson, Assault, Injury, Fraud)→(Robbery, Rape, Assault, Injury)→(Theft)
- 日本犯罪社会学会の論文