<論文>1990 年代アメリカの株式ブームとその行方(下)

概要

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This thesis has a twofold aim: to ascertain whether the U.S. equity boom of the 1990's is a kind of bubble, and if it is the case, to predict whether or not it is destined to end in a fearful crash and a great depression.With the equity boom of the 1990's, the U.S. economy has enjoyed a long period of continuing prosperity. History repeats itself. Will it also repeat the precedent of the 1929 crash?First; in order to judge whether or not the prosperity is a bubble, the key lies in the method and means of evaluating the level of stock prices. The modern theory of stock price formation has been finely sophisticated. Nonetheless, it cannot escape the criticism that it neglects the very sense of actuality. Second; in order to predict hard landing or soft landing, the key is in ascertaining the scale of reverseasset effects of stock prices. Together with it, the change of debt service burden should also receive more attention.The second and latter half of this study attempts to analyse the downturn process of the equity boom: a process that has been in evidence since March 2000. Further scrutiny is given to the FED and its Chairman Greenspan's so-called accurate assessment of business situation and the art of financial policy, which have hitherto been taken on faith as the ultimate support for avoiding a hard landing.
法政大学の論文
2001-09-29