生態毒性の生命表評価法と生態リスク分析

概要

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A framework of ecological risk assessment based on extinction probability of populations is presented. The estimation of extinction risk consists of three steps, i.e. 1) estimation of dose-intrinsic natural increase curve based on experimental evaluation of dose-response curves, 2) calculation of dose-extinction time curves by means of analytical solutions of extinction time models, and 3) from comparison between the dose-extinction time curves and real exposure of pollutants into natural environments, the extinction risk of target species is evaluated. In this paper, I reviewed previous ecological toxicity experiments, and concluded that the life table evaluation is the most stringiest protocol for estimating important population parameters ( especially, intrinsic rate of natural increase). To summarize the data base of life table evaluation I analyzed the data with a power function model for dose-intrinsic rate curves. Based on this model, available data can be summarized into two summary parameters, i.e. α and β, which respectively represents the critical dosage where the intrinsic rate drops off below 0 and the curvature of the curves. There is a highly positive correlation between α-value and LD50s, suggesting a possibility of extrapolation from acute toxicities to α-values. Extinction time models are shortly reviewed, and extinction cost was tentatively calculated using these models.
横浜国立大学の論文