ハザード関数を用いた富士五湖地域来訪者滞在時間モデルの構築

概要

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Recently, in a typical sightseeing area in Japan like Fuji-five lakes area, there have often occurred serious traffic congestion in the arterial roads and highways approaching there. As this problem is caused by both temporal and spatial distributions of the peaked traffic-volume, it is expected that a time-space analysis plays an important role of describing those characteristics. In this study, of a particular concern is that the activity duration time in a sightseeing area is modeled using the concept of a hazard function. This paper aims to develop two prototypes of hazard function models; Weibull and Log-logistic distributions and apply them to the data sets collected in Fuji-five lakes. The paper also discuss basic properties of the model-parameters estimated by a maximum likelihood method. The results show that both types of models can represent goodness of fit as a whole but remain the problem to be solved with respect to model-fitting at the tail of hazard distribution.
山梨大学の論文