降雨の短時間自動予測手法について
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概要
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Short-term precipitation forecasting is one of the promising subjects in the application of the use of radar echo imageries of precipitation. There are basically the following three methods for forecasting. One is to assume that the current motion of precipitation area continues to the same direction at the same speed without distortion or development. Another is to consider the distortion and development as well as simple translation. The other is to use the metorological synoptic data in addition to the information about the graphical changes of radar echo patterns. The method presented in this paper belongs to the second category; namely, the forecasting is conducted based only on the graphical characteristics of echo patterns but considering translation, enlargement and development. Topographical effects are also taken into account. The full automatic forecasting method was found to be effective up to 20minutes to the future. The man-machine system or a semi-automatic forecasting method, which takes into account the distortion factor as well, suggested about 40 to 50minutes validity. These effective prediction ranges, however, largely depend upon the characteristics of precipitation clouds and the criterion of evaluation, namely, the purposes of the use of predicted information.
- 山梨大学の論文
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