Future Water Availability in the Asian Monsoon Region: A Case Study in Indonesia
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概要
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In the Asian monsoon region, which has distinct rainy and dry seasons, the water cycle will be accelerated by global warming, leading to more intense rainfall and long-term drought. The growing population in Indonesia will require increased food production in the future, and the floods and droughts induced by global climate change will affect agricultural production directly and indirectly through soil erosion and/or changes in carbon and nutrient dynamics in soil. Therefore, evaluation of spatial and temporal distributions of available water is necessary to manage water resources effectively. In this study, we predicted the future water availability in the Citarum River basin of West Java. A distributed water cycling model was developed and applied to analyze the water balance in the basin, and a dam operation model was combined with this model to calculate water storage in the reservoirs. According to our analyses, rainfall intensity is expected to lessen in 2046-2055, with rain falling more equally throughout the year and with mid-range amounts of rainfall continuing for longer periods as compared to 1996-2005. The drought period in 1996-2005 was 632 days over 10 years, but in 2046-2055 it is predicted to increase to 881 days. The predicted frequency of flooding increased from two times in 1996-2005 to five times in 2046-2055. These results show that water will become difficult to obtain in the future, and water scarcity and competition among water users will become severe. Our analyses of two irrigation districts showed that the one with water regulation facilities is expected to have more stable water availability in the face of climate change conditions than the one with no such facilities. Thus, it is necessary to construct more water regulation facilities to improve the resilience of the Citarum watershed to water scarcity.
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