Development of Gray System Model on Energy Consumption and Emissions of Air Pollutants and GHGs in China. II. An Emission Model of SO2, NOx and CO2.:An Emission Model of SO<SUB>2</SUB>, NO<SUB>x</SUB> and CO<SUB>2</SUB>
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概要
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This paper presents estimates of emissions of three major air pollutants and GHGs of China: sulfur dioxide (SO<SUB>2</SUB>), nitrogen dioxide (NO<SUB>x</SUB>) and carbon dioxide (CO<SUB>2</SUB>) for each of 30 provinces, 60 energy demand sectors and 22 fuel types covered by the Gray Forecast Model for China's Energy Consumption (CGEn model) developed by part I Under the assumptions of the future coal sulfur contents, desulphurization efficiency and emission factors of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and CO<SUB>2</SUB>. Data for 1995 are presented, as well as future projection until 2030 with 5 year span by two, high and low economic growth, scenarios. The SO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions are projected to increase to 34, 200Gg and 25, 600Gg for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively in 2030 from 23, 300Gg in 1995. Emissions of NO<SUB>x</SUB> are projected to increase to 25, 200Gg and 18, 400Gg for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively in 2030 from 8, 770Gg in 1995. CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions are projected to reach 10, 200Tg and 7, 590Tg for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively in 2030 from 4, 080Tg in 1995. The SO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions are projected to increase to the peak 34, 200Gg in 2030 for Scenario 1 and to the peak 30, 200Gg in 2015 for Scenario 2 from 23, 300Gg in 1995. The NOx emissions are projected to increase to the peak 25, 100Gg in 2030 for Scenario 1 and to the peak 20, 100Gg in 2025 for Scenario 2 from 8, 770Gg in 1995. The CO<SUB>2</SUB> emissions are projected to increase to the peak 10, 200Tg in 2030 for Scenario 1 and to the peak 8, 200Tg in 2020 for Scenario 2 from 4, 080Gg in 1995. The emissions of all three species are concentrated in the populated and industrialized provinces: Sichuan, Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Shanxi and Hebei. As a base case in this paper part I and II, without consideration of low NO<SUB>x</SUB> combustion, NO<SUB>x</SUB> removal and fuel switching, the future emission factors of NO<SUB>x</SUB> and CO<SUB>2</SUB> are fixed as present state. The emission reduction effect of these options will be discussed in the following part of this work.
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一般社団法人 日本エネルギー学会 | 論文
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