General Planning and Control Department, Senior Economist:Reform of the American Oil Import Quota System

概要

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My purpose is to explain the discussion of the reform of the American oil import quota system which had been held in the committee of the Cabinet Task Force, and to anticipate for America to select a tariff plan soon or later after a long adjusting period, and to think about the influence upon the world oil market and Japan if America selects a tariff plan. About this problem, Mr. W. Levy says, if America adopts a tariff scheme, OPEC member countries would strongly insist the reform of their tax-rate, and so the world oil price-level must necessarily go upward. If it is true, Japan, the greatest oil importer, will lose much money. But I don't think such that under the following reasons. (1) Even if America adopts atariff plan, the time will be after 1975, and it will be carried out with a long adjusting term. And if that will be so, American tariff scheme won't have so great influence upon the world oil market, considering the affluence of the world oil stock. (2) The opinion of the OPEC member countries isn't same with each other, some want to revise tax-rate, others want more amount of tax revenue. (3) After 1985-1990, the share of Atomic power in the first energy supply, will attain a fairly large percentage, and the price of crude oil will be decided in relation to this cost of atomic energy. So the price level of crude oil will go downward to that even point.
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