Discussion of Basic Elasticity Models Applied to Induced Traffic in China

概要

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This paper aims to further discuss basic elasticity models in China, using the panel data set of annual observations of China and six areas (North China, East China, Southwest China, South Central China, Northeast China and Northwest China) for the years 1990-2008. Based on the related foreign concept of induced traffic, autocorrelation model, autoregressive distributed lag model and dummy model are researched. According to the detailed analysis of empirical results, these models are available to China. Lane-kilometers are found to have a statistical relationship with VKT (vehicle-kilometers of travel) of 0.060-0.882 in short-term and 0.086-1.194 in long-term in China and six areas. These mean the necessary of considering induced traffic in China. About the basic elasticity models discussed in this paper, autoregressive distributed lag model is better suitable in China. It not only includes the time delay and cumulative effect but also brings more economic explanations than autocorrelation model.
Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studiesの論文