Projection of glacier mass changes under a high-emission climate scenario using the global glacier model HYOGA2

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概要

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• We report a time series (1948–2100) of global-scale meltwater from mountain glaciers and ice caps (MGI) estimated by the global glacier model HYOGA2. HYOGA2 calculates the temporal fluctuation of the mass balance for 24,234 individual glaciers worldwide. It covers 90% of the total glacier area, except for glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. HYOGA2 also accounts for regionally distributed changes in glacier area and altitude associated with glacier retreat and advance. By computation of individual glacier changes, future dissipation and glacier mass and area changes can be simulated in the model. The cumulative volume loss of water between 1948 and 2005 was estimated to be 25.9 ± 1.4 mm sea level equivalent (SLE). A future projection under a high-emission scenario demonstrated significant losses of water from MGI equivalent to 60.3 ± 7.9 mm SLE between 1948 and 2060 and 99.0 ± 14.9 mm SLE between 1948 and 2099.

著者

• Watanabe Satoshi

  Institute of Geosciences, Faculty of Science, Shizuoka University

• Kanae Shinjiro

  Department of Mechanical and Environmental Informatics, Tokyo Institute of Technology

• Hirabayashi Yukiko

  Institute of Engineering Innovation, School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo

• Zang Yong

  Institute of Engineering Innovation, School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo

• Koirala Sujan

  Institute of Engineering Innovation, School of Engineering, the University of Tokyo

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• Projection of glacier mass changes under a high-emission climate scenario using the global glacier model HYOGA2

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