オイルショック後の日本における少年の殺人発生率と完全失業率の長期的関連とその構造変化

概要

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This study examines correlation between unemployment rates and juvenile homicide rates for 16-17 and 18-19 age groups during 1974-2008 in Japan, using cointegration regression and error correction models. Since the publication of Yuma, Kanazawa, and Yuma (2010), two more yearly data sets become available and we include them in this study. For 16-17 age group, our results are consistent with our previous study. For 18-19 age group, on the other hand, we find its homicide rate significantly dropped in 2000, while the effect of unemployment on homicide-higher unemployment rate is associated with higher homicide rate-have been consistently observed during the research period as in our previous study. These results are discussed in terms of the dramatic rise in Japanese suicide rate since 1998 and the public opinion calling for more severe punishment since the late 90s.