Long-Term Outlook for Global Natural Uranium and Uranium Enrichment Supply and Demand Situations after the Impact of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident

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In this paper, the authors propose long-term projections of global nuclear power generation, uranium production, and uranium enrichment capacities by region, and estimate the trade flows of natural uranium and uranium enrichment activities in 2020 and 2035. In spite of the rapid nuclear power generation capacity growth expected especially in Asia, the natural uranium and uranium enrichment trade will not be tightened by 2020 due to the projected increase in both natural uranium production and uranium enrichment capacities, which may cause a drop in natural uranium and uranium enrichment prices. Thus, there is a great possibility that the current projects for capacity expansion will be delayed considerably. However, in the “high-demand scenario”, where nuclear expansion will be accelerated due to growing concerns about global warming and energy security issues, additional investments in uranium production and enrichment facilities will be needed by 2035. In Asia, the self-sufficiency ratio for both natural uranium supply and uranium enrichment activities will remain relatively low until 2035. However, the Herfindahl-Hirschman (HH) index of natural uranium and uranium enrichment activity trade to Asia will be lowered considerably up to 2035, indicating that nuclear capacity expansion can contribute to enhancing energy security in Asia.