Econometric Analysis of Radiata Pine Log Trade between New Zealand and East Asian Countries

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There is an increasing interest in the sustainable supply of wood from New Zealand's plantation forests. This is due to the importance of New Zealand in global trade and uncertainty about the sustainability of supply from other countries, such as Russia. The aim of this paper is to identify important factors that influence log supply and demand for New Zealand and its key Asian markets (South Korea, Japan and China). To this end we used annual time series data from 1990 to 2008 to estimate export supply and import demand functions by two stage least squares with stepwise regression estimation. We found that New Zealand's log exports to Japan and South Korea are not sensitive to price, but exports to China are sensitive to price, while New Zealand's total harvest has a stronger influence on log export supply to China and South Korea. New Zealand's domestic log consumption competes with exports to Japan, but does not compete with supply to South Korea or China. Import demand in South Korea, Japan, and China for New Zealand logs is negatively affected by import price, with Japan's import demand the most price-sensitive. The three markets differ in the impact of gross domestic product on import demand. Gross domestic product has a strong positive impact on log demand in Japan and China, but a modest impact in South Korea.