未婚化・社会階層・経済成長 (特集全国家族調査)

概要

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This chapter examines the hypothesis that the decline in the economic growth rate has crucial impact on the postponement of marriage since the mid-1970s. If this is the case, such macroeconomic change, expanding economic opportunity differentials associated with socioeconomic stratification, decreases the likelihood of marriage among young men in a relatively lower position, and thus causes delayed marriage for young women, under the circumstance of persistent gender-role segregation in Japan. Firm empirical support for these hypotheses is found in the analyses using data from the 1998 National Family Research and discrete-time logit models with time-dependent covariates including economic growth rate. (1) The decline in the economic growth rate decreases the likelihood of marriage among men in their early 30s and among women in their 20s. (2) The effect of higher education delaying marriage works only in their early 20s among men and women. (3) Occupation yields differentials in the likelihood of marriage among men aged 20-34 and women aged 30-34. But this effect of occupation is eased by a high economic growth rate due to an interaction effect between these two variables.
学術団体日本家族社会学会の論文