A MODEL FOR POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE RECENCY EFFECTS ON PREDICTIVE BEHAVIOR

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概要

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• A model for human predictive behavior is introduced. The model deals with successive changes of guessing quotients which contain the negative recency effect, gambler's fallacy, as well as the positive one. A guessing experiment was conducted to test the applicability of the model. 90 subjects were to predict a sequential events with 2 alternatives. Guessing quotients were calculated and used to estimate parameters in the model. A fairly good fit of the theoretical quotients to the observed data was found. The relationships between the statistical learning theories and the measure on which our model was based are discussed.

• 公益社団法人 日本心理学会の論文

著者

• SHIBA SUKEYORI

  University of Tokyo

関連論文

• A MODEL FOR POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE RECENCY EFFECTS ON PREDICTIVE BEHAVIOR
• REACTION TIME AND REDUNDANCY OF STIMULUS SEQUENCE

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