EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF TUBERCULOSIS IN OKINAWA:Report 1. Trend of Tuberculosis Infection Analyzed by Stýblo's Model

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The author made analysis on the trend of tuberculosis infection in Okinawa by applying modified Sqblo's method on the results of tuberculin testing obtained from the tuberculosis prevalence survey in Okinawa, 1968. The conclusions are the follo w ing 1) The annual risk of in f ection has been decreasing exponentially from 7% in 1940 to 0.3% in 1970. 2) T h e decrease of infection risk is steeper in rural area than in urban area. 3) The risk of infection is somewhat higher in male than in female, thou g h the declining trend is equal in both sexes. These are expressed in mathematical equations, from which the age-specific tuberculin positive rates by different observation points and by the cohorts are calculated and predicted. Discussions are made on the assumption of the employed method, namely the risk of infection is equal in all age-groups. The data of serial tuberculin testing of the schoolchildren indicates the existence of the age-specifity of infection risk. However, the effect of the age factor becomes less influential on the tuberculin positive rate in higher age-groups, due to the decrease of population at risk among them and the decrease of the risk in later calendar years, namely older age-groups of each cohorts.
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