金融・経済危機がロシアの内政・外交に与えた影響
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This article examines how the global financial and economic crisis and the accompanying change in international oil prices have affected Russia’s internal and external affairs, especially the tandem system of governance and its foreign policy towards East Asia. Because this crisis was not foreseen when the tandem administration was introduced, at present, political stability is suffering from poor crisis management. While it cannot be said that the tandem system has been fundamentally damaged, judging from the fact that Prime Minister Putin is increasingly adopting a hands-on approach, the probability that he will be back as President in the coming presidential election is growing. Though not proved, Russia’s assertive foreign policy largely depended on the high international oil prices before the Georgian conflict. Whether Russia likes it or not, after the global financial and economic crisis, Russia has to tap East Asia to recover its economic growth by exporting more energy products to the emerging new markets there. However, we should not overestimate this trend as East Asia is not Russia’s top-most foreign policy priority, and Russia does not accord that much strategic importance to East Asia. Because Russia’s national goal for 2020, as stated in “National Security Strategy through to 2020 of Russian Federation,” is continued economic growth so as to become the fifth-largest economy in the world, it is much more important—after this crisis—to pay attention to the correlation between economic and political factors using the interdisciplinary method.
著者
関連論文
- 金融・経済危機がロシアの内政・外交に与えた影響
- Roy Allison, Margot Light and Stephen White, Putin's Russia and the Enlarged Europe
- COMMENT(諜報大国ロシアの成り立ちと今日的課題,第5分科会:環日本海歴史・自然・環境I,第9回研究大会報告要旨)
- 第2期プーチン政権における安全保障政策の立案・形成過程--安全保障会議の改編と「国家安全保障概念」の改訂を中心に
- 書評 Кокошин, Андрей, Стратегическое управление: Теория, исторический опыт, сравнителъный анализ, задачи для России (РОССПЭН, 2003), 527с.
- 乾一宇著『力の信奉者ロシア その思想と戦略』