上海市の某地域における結核の頻度の推移 - 数理モデルによる試論 -

概要

論文の詳細を見る
A widely-used mathematical model (compartmental model) in epidemiological studies was utilized to analyze the tuberculosis situation in area Y of Shanghai from 1971 till 1994. In this model, the whole population was divided into 5 groups, (susceptible, latent, prevalent, healed and immune). Six parameters (effective BCG coverage, immune loss rate, infection rate, disease risk, cure rate and heal loss rate) were introduced and discussed to describe the transmission of tuberculosis. The computed tuberculosis data from this model agree quite well with the observed data. The results show that the susceptible group is the largest among all groups. In 1994, the annual risk of infection was estimated to be 0.26%. It is predicted that elderly people will comprise an increasing percentage of tuberculosis patients in the future. It is also found that it will still take a long time to eliminate tuberculosis under current medical situations.
日本衛生学会の論文
2000-10-15