沖縄の地域特性と自立的発展の可能性
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概要
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Okinawa, is located in the south east end of Japan, has some paticular issues, for examples, having been waseted by World War II, after the end of the war having been occupied by USA for twenty years, remaining the vast USAF bases and being composed of many islands.On the other hand, she has subtropical nature, the abundant sun energy and marine resources. Okinawa economy mainly depends on the public investment and the consumption by tourists.I take up four outside economic factors, rising economic growth in Okinawa, the Public finance transfers (G), the tourism revenues (Tu), the revenues from USAF bases and the compensation of employees outside of Okinawa (O).I analize the rerationship between these four factors and the economic growth in Okinawa.1. Saturation Equation ApproachI assume a saturation equation for analizing the relation (A/Y) and (Y/No/GDP/N). According (1), the minimum level for keeping (Y/No) postitive is calculated 29.3%. And this saturation equation shows that the limit of economic growth by outside economic factors is 74.8%. Y: Gross Prefectural Product (constant), No: Population in Okinawa, GDP: Gross Domestic Product, N: Population in Japan, A=G+Tu+O+(the revenues from USAF bases)2. Simultaneous econometric model approachAnd I analize this problem by other method, the simultaneous econometric model of six equations by data of 1980-1990 for middle range pridicting. $: exchange rate, U: unemployement rate, D85: 1985=1 dummyAccording to the result of simulatation by this econometric model, a gap of per. capita Gross Domestic Product between in Okinawa and All Japan is shortened 10% by making 1.5 times as large each tourism revenues and the public finance transfers.