日本の経済成長と財貨移動 : 物流の歴史的変化の分析と国内輸送モデルの構築を中心として
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概要
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This empirical study consists of two parts, a historical data analysis and an econometric modeling exercise. The former part explains the scale of commodity flow by three basic concepts, discusses the supply structure by different transportation modes, and observe their historical changing trends by comparing three periods. The latter part clarifies the relation between the interregional commodity flow and the development of Japanese economy by constructing Interregional Commodity Flow Model, and implementing simulation studies.Based on the adoption of three basic measures of interregional commodity flow, and their historical trends in 1970-1996 with the elasticity of their transported volume to GDP, we observed three cycles with low-elasticity for former half, and then high-elasticity for latter half.: First (1970-79), Second (1980-89), and Third (1990-96).The share of motor-vehicles increased form 8.687% (1950) to 53.29% (1996), while the share of railways decreased from 50.27% (1950) to 4.35% (1996). I clarified the saturation levels of motor-vehicles (railways) in Japan as 60.0% (3.9%) based on saturation equations.The model consists of 6 structural equations and 4 definitional equations with annual data in 1975-1996. The equations are divided into two blocks: macro economy block and physical distribution block. I confirmed a good fitting as the results that the mean absolute percentage error for final five yeas was less than 2.2% for all variables.Various simulation studies revealed that recent deindustrialization trend decreased while deconcentraion of industrial sites to Pacific-Ocean-Belt-Region also decreased the total scale of interregional commodity flow in Japan.The decrease of petroleum price would urge the use of motor-vehicles, and increase the service ratio of motor-vehicles.
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