中国超長期経済発展におけるエネルギー所要量
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概要
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This paper purports to derive the energy requirement for the Chinas long-term economic development during the period of 1999 to 2030 derived from a projection with our updated PERT-Econometric model. Several major issues of the economic development of China will be discussed in addition to the energy demand and supply balance along her development path.In the past more than 20 years since the end of 70s China achieved a very fast economic growth under the ‘Reform and Open’ regime. Although China is expected to maintain high economic growth for a considerable period to come, some serious issues, such as unemployment and disparity in income distribution, need thorough investigation to assess the attainability of the intended development. The discrepancy between the growing demand for and declining production of energy, for instance, has already become serious enough to affect not only her energy policy but also her foreign policy. The model projection shows that the required energy consumption will increase from 1.4 in 1999 to 5.3 billion SCE (standard coal equivalent) tons in 2030 under the presumed condition, which implies that the energy import will grow to 2.1 billion tons.Our study is based on the PERT-econometric model that was specifically designed for development planning to focus on typical Asiatic not-too-small economies, and revised and updated for this study. An application of the model to Chinas economy will reveal the changes in the composition of the industrial sectors, which will accordingly affect the demand for energy. Subjected to several judgmental indicators, the outcome of several projections indicates the overall level of energy efficiency to be achieved for the targeted per capita $3, 500 to be attained.
- 日本地域学会の論文