輸送・環境モデルによる東海3県の貸物自動車公害汚染規模の推測
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概要
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The control of pollutant emission has become a serious social problem in Japan. The automotive pollution is one of the main sources. But until now, the necessary quantitative estimation system on regional level has not been constructed except the fields of acid rain, nitrogen oxides and suspended particulate matter. In this paper, I constructed a quantitative model to estimate the intraprefectural commodity transport, number of vehicles by 4 types, and resulting quantity of pollution by 5 types; carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbon (HC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon dioxide (CO2), suspended particulate matter (SPM). I estimated them in Gifu and Aichi Prefectures, and extrapolated to the national figures based on regional shares of two prefectures in population and transport quantity. I estimated the automotive pollution for 1991-94, and found that the emission of CO2, the most important factor of green-house-effect, has not decreased over time, while other three {CO, HC, NOx} have steadily decreased and the emission of SPM did not show a definite trend in Gifu Prefecture. To assess the effects of policies to reduce the exhaustion gas by vehicles, I made two simulation studies based on the quantitative model. The results are as follows.Case (1): Hypothesis (a), The reduction would be 25% in NOx, 64% in SPM by shifting discharging regulation value from 1994 to 1999 against large-sized diesel vehicles. The result was completely consistent with Hypothesis (a).Case (2): Hypothesis (b), When private vehicles adapt Sekisai-Hi (the percentage of actual loading to full loading capacity) to the level of commercial vehicles, the reduction would be 34% in each five toxic pollutants. The value of reduction volume was between 44% and 29%.The central as well as prefectural governments are urged to establish the effective countermeasures to automotive pollution if the target of Kyoto-Protocol, i.e., the reduction of emission by 5-6 percent compared with the level at 1990, would be achieved by 2008-2010. For that purpose, their intensive efforts are called for. I hope the quantitative model in this paper can provide some useful materials.
- 日本地域学会の論文