Assessment of Renewable Energy Penetration of Power Development Plan in Thailand

概要

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This paper investigates the impacts of renewable energy deployment on the overall cost and emission for power production. A scenario-based energy accounting model with an integrated environmental database, i.e. Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system (LEAP), has been applied. The “reference scenario” is derived by the most-likely projection of Thailand power generation system, based on the national power development plan (PDP). Biomass will take the majority on renewable energy for power generation (RE-power). The “RENW scenario” will be set alternatively with more optimistic prospective on renewable energy progress. It is assumed that all of the incoming proposals of RE-power in the PDP are able to accomplish commissioning. Solar and bio-energy will play much more important role for the future domestic supply for Thailand power sector. The results indicates that the incremental cost of RE-power is not significantly affect to the cost of entire power system. On the other hand, RE-powers should not be considered as a single dependable option for the GHG mitigation target in power sector. However, the early RE-power project implementation will multiply the contribution of GHG mitigation in the long run.